Why Has Armenia Lost Confidence in Russia?
With Nikol Pashinyan expected to remain prime minister, Armenia is likely to continue reducing its dependence on Russia while expanding cooperation with the West.
The turning point came in early 2024, when Armenia froze its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russian-led military alliance long regarded as a cornerstone of Moscow’s security influence across the former Soviet space. The decision reflected Yerevan’s loss of confidence after Russia and the CSTO failed to intervene on Armenia’s behalf during its conflict with Azerbaijan, dealing a significant blow to Russia’s credibility as a security guarantor for its allies.
At the same time, Armenia accelerated its integration with the European Union. The two sides held their first-ever EU-Armenia Summit, expanding cooperation in the fields of economy, energy, border management, and institutional reform.
In the security sphere, Yerevan has strengthened cooperation with the United States and other Western partners while diversifying its arms procurement by purchasing more military equipment from India instead of relying almost exclusively on Russia.
Another major shift is Pashinyan’s effort to normalize relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The goal is to open new trade routes, reduce Armenia’s regional isolation, and gradually lessen its strategic dependence on Russia.
In response, Moscow has repeatedly warned Armenia about the consequences of moving closer to the EU and has applied economic pressure, including restrictions on imports of certain Armenian products.
Despite this strategic shift, Armenia cannot break away from Russia overnight. Its economy still depends heavily on trade, energy supplies, and remittances from Russia. Pashinyan’s objective is therefore not to sever ties with Moscow, but to gradually build alternatives and reduce Armenia’s dependence over the long term.
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