Why Beijing Is Suddenly Worried About Vietnam?
There is a change taking place in Vietnam that is making Beijing more concerned than ever before. And very few people have noticed it.
What worries China most right now is not Vietnam’s military. It is the new direction of Vietnam’s strategy.
Vietnam is increasingly turning to South Korea, Japan, Israel, the United States, and India for weapons. Not Russia. And certainly not China. Instead, it is looking toward countries that are among America’s closest partners.
Many people see only the arms deals. But the real change is not about who supplies Vietnam’s weapons. The real change is that Vietnam is gradually moving away from China.
When Hanoi turns to America’s close partners instead of countries that are traditionally seen as being within Beijing’s orbit, such as Russia, it is a sign that Vietnam’s strategic thinking may be evolving.
But the most important shift is not in the military balance. It is in Vietnam’s willingness to accept Chinese influence.
Vietnam understands that it cannot compete with China militarily. But it also appears increasingly unwilling to let China determine what Vietnam is allowed to do.
Hanoi seems less and less interested in living in a regional order where every morning begins with the same question:
“Will Beijing approve of what we do today?”
In other words, the most significant change is not the number of weapons Vietnam buys.
It is the growing reluctance of Hanoi to allow Beijing to shape its strategic choices.
That is what China has reason to pay attention to.
Because the erosion of influence is often far more dangerous than a new weapons contract.
The signs always appear before a crisis. The problem is that very few people notice them.
The real question is not whether friction between Vietnam and China will emerge.
The real question is this:
What will China do if Vietnam no longer behaves the way Beijing expects it to?
And beyond that, there is an even larger question.
Can Vietnam and China ever return to the era described by President Ho Chi Minh when he famously said:
“Vietnam–China friendship shall remain evergreen and endure for generations to come.”
Or is that era gradually becoming a thing of the past?