Semiconductors are not enough to explain it. Taiwan occupies an important military position in the First Island Chain, but China has lived with that geography for decades. Energy security is not the answer either. China remains heavily dependent on seaborne oil imports, especially through the Strait of Malacca. Even if Beijing controlled Taiwan, that chokepoint would remain. A war could also trigger sanctions, disrupt maritime trade and make China’s own energy vulnerability even more dangerous.
So what China needs may not be the immediate conquest of Taiwan. What it needs is for Taiwan, the United States and Japan to always believe that China could actually go to war. That fear creates power by itself. Taiwan has to think carefully before moving too far toward political independence or becoming a U.S. military outpost just off China’s coast. Washington and Tokyo must also factor the cost of war into every decision to deepen their involvement.
Pressure on Taiwan also sends a broader message to every country around China: Beijing does not want territory along its borders and surrounding seas to become military outposts that could be used against China. A Taiwan closely integrated with the U.S. military would place a strategic position directly off China’s coast in the hands of a rival. But Beijing has similar concerns about Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, India, Myanmar, Laos, Central Asian states and other countries around China.
The message Beijing wants its neighbors to understand is clear: If their territory becomes a military outpost directed against China, they must also consider the possibility that China could use direct military force. The lesson from Ukraine is that a major power may be willing to pay an enormous price to prevent a neighboring country from moving in a direction it considers a threat to its security. Beijing wants the countries around China to always factor that risk into their decisions.
By repeatedly demonstrating its ability to attack Taiwan, China makes every neighboring country think carefully before allowing its territory to become a military position against Beijing. So China may not be eager to conquer Taiwan. A Taiwan that constantly fears war, a United States that must continually weigh the risk of direct confrontation, and neighboring countries that remain wary of a possible Chinese attack already give Beijing considerable advantages without a shot being fired.