Israel’s Next Rival Is Even Harder Than Iran
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has openly placed Turkey and Qatar in what he called the “Muslim Brotherhood axis,” while declaring that Israel will not allow Turkey to strengthen Syria. This was more than a tough statement. It signals that Israel is beginning to view Ankara as a long-term strategic challenger.
If Iran was a difficult problem, Turkey is an even more complicated one. Iran has spent years under sanctions, isolated, and with few real allies. Turkey, by contrast, is a NATO member, a U.S. treaty ally, one of the region’s strongest militaries, and home to a rapidly growing defense industry. Although Ankara often clashes with Washington and other Western partners, its geopolitical position is fundamentally different from Iran’s.
That makes direct military confrontation far more difficult for Israel. A war between the two countries would carry military and diplomatic consequences that neither side could easily control.
If competition continues to intensify, Syria is likely to become the main battleground. Israel wants Syria to remain too weak to pose a security threat or fall under Ankara’s sphere of influence. Turkey, meanwhile, wants a stable, friendly Syrian government strong enough to expand its influence across the Middle East. Those objectives are fundamentally incompatible.
The most important message in Katz’s remarks was this: “We will not allow Erdogan to strengthen Syria.” It shows that Israel is determined to prevent any regional power from shifting the balance against it while continuing to expand its strategic influence after Iran’s decline.
Iran may have been yesterday’s war. But the long-term strategic competition between Israel and Türkiye is likely to shape the Middle East for years to come, fought primarily through proxy battlefields rather than direct war.
#Israel #Turkey #Syria #MiddleEast #Geopolitics
Control Threat | Strategic Risk Analysis