Instead of launching a military intervention or attempting to overthrow the entire regime, Washington is testing a different approach in Venezuela. After the kidnapping of Venezuela’s president, the United States pressured the remaining officials to gradually shift toward cooperation.

American companies are returning to invest, while the two countries are expanding cooperation in oil, intelligence, counter-narcotics, and transnational crime. In return, Venezuela gains an opportunity to revive its economy, attract investment, and reduce years of international isolation. For Washington, this means expanding U.S. influence across the Western Hemisphere, giving American companies access to one of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and gradually reducing the influence of Russia and China in the region.

At this stage, Venezuela can be seen as a model that reflects Donald Trump’s approach: achieving multiple strategic objectives quickly, at relatively low cost, and without launching a large-scale military intervention.

This approach is far less expensive than military action. Washington combines economic and security incentives with the ability to reimpose sanctions if cooperation breaks down. This blend of “the carrot and the stick” allows the United States to sustain its influence more effectively than relying on economic incentives alone.

The model, however, has a clear weakness. The United States does not directly control Venezuela’s military or security institutions, meaning a future government could still change course if a more attractive alternative emerges. That is why Washington will likely deepen its influence in the security sector over time to reduce this risk. Although far cheaper than direct military intervention, this approach cannot completely eliminate the possibility that Venezuela may eventually shift its strategic alignment.

#Venezuela #USA #Geopolitics #Oil #China #Trump

Control Threat | Strategic Risk Analysis

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega has declared that Nicaragua will no longer hold elections that allow the opposition to take power. At the same time, he is pushing constitutional reforms to extend presidential terms from six to seven years and bar candidates the government labels as “traitors” or “coup plotters” from running.

For Washington, this is about more than democracy. Nicaragua sits in Central America, was once the proposed site of a Chinese-backed canal to rival the Panama Canal, and maintains close political ties with Russia, China, Cuba, and Venezuela.

Each step Nicaragua takes toward America’s strategic rivals gives Washington more reason to increase pressure to protect its traditional sphere of influence. Unlike Cuba, Nicaragua still depends heavily on the U.S. market for exports and benefits from the CAFTA-DR free trade agreement, giving the United States significant economic and trade leverage.

However, Washington is currently focused on the Middle East, meaning Nicaragua is unlikely to be a top priority for now. That does not mean the U.S. will ignore it. It may simply be a matter of timing.

#USA #Nicaragua #CentralAmerica #Geopolitics #Russia #China

Control Threat | Strategic Risk Analysis

Keiko Fujimori has been sworn in as Peru’s president after narrowly winning the election. She is a Peruvian of Japanese descent and the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori. This was her fourth presidential campaign, following three consecutive defeats in 2011, 2016, and 2021.

The choice made by Peruvian voters sends a clear message. Fujimori has pledged to crack down on crime through tougher measures, including deporting undocumented migrants, requiring prisoners to work, and strengthening law enforcement.

It reflects a broader trend emerging across many countries. As public concerns over security grow, voters are increasingly willing to give more power to leaders who promise to restore order, even if those policies are controversial.

Crime is no longer just an issue of public safety. It is becoming one of the most powerful forces shaping politics around the world.

#Peru #KeikoFujimori #Security #Politics

Control Threat | Strategic Risk Analysis

An internal DEA assessment says Operation Southern Spear has not significantly reduced the flow of cocaine into the United States. Drug cartels have quickly adapted by switching to larger vessels, aircraft, and new trafficking routes. Cocaine prices, purity, and availability in the U.S. remain largely unchanged.

If this assessment gains wider acceptance, the political implications could be significant. If maritime interdiction fails to achieve its objective, Washington will have a stronger argument that tackling the problem at its source requires greater pressure on coca-producing countries and territories controlled by drug cartels.

This follows the same logic the Trump administration has already applied to Mexico, elevating the cartel issue from organized crime to a national security threat. If that approach expands further, America’s anti-drug strategy may no longer stop at intercepting shipments. It could move closer to the source of production itself.

In other words, if Operation Southern Spear is judged ineffective, it could provide political justification for Washington to pursue stronger intervention across South America.

#USA #Trump #Cartel #SouthAmerica

Control Threat | Strategic Risk Analysis

THIS VIDEO IS NOT
FOR THE MASSES

IT IS FOR THOSE
WHO WANT TO LEARN

HOW TO GAIN SUPPORT
AS FAST AS POSSIBLE

DONALD TRUMP IS A MASTER
AT TURNING IMAGES INTO PUBLIC APPROVAL

AND NO ONE UNDERSTANDS THAT
BETTER THAN HE DOES

THE RAID IN VENEZUELA
IS A TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE OF THAT LESSON

If Venezuela was the opening move, what kind of country will be targeted next?

For decades, Venezuela has been one of the most aggressively anti-U.S. countries in South America. From Hugo Chávez to Nicolás Maduro, Caracas has consistently positioned itself in direct opposition to Washington, moved closer to Russia, China, and Iran, and held a uniquely powerful strategic weapon: oil.

But to understand why the United States is acting this way, we need to look at the person making the decision: Donald Trump.

Trump is not a long-term strategist. He is a populist politician who prioritizes simple, easily understood actions that deliver immediate results in the eyes of voters, regardless of long-term consequences. Instead of complex plans with uncertain outcomes, Trump chooses shock moves strong enough to leave a personal mark.

That mindset explains most of his major decisions. The lightning operation to capture Venezuela’s president is a clear example.

Trump is now in his second and final term under the U.S. Constitution. Looking back, he realizes that he still lacks a truly symbolic geopolitical legacy. Trump is one of the few American presidents who has not launched a war. But a long, costly conflict with distant and uncertain benefits does not fit his style.

So what about a short, fast, symbolic campaign?

Trump looked at the world map and saw Venezuela as a nearly perfect target.

An unstable country, a collapsing economy, and a deeply divided society. A president facing domestic opposition and leading a government with weak legitimacy. Venezuela is isolated in South America, lacking strong military allies and located outside high-risk strategic theaters like the Middle East or Eastern Europe.

Striking Venezuela does not carry the risk of direct confrontation with other major powers.

So why not Cuba?

Because Cuba is poor and has almost no strategic resources to exploit.

Venezuela is different. It holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world. Controlling Caracas could immediately affect oil supply to the U.S. market, push energy prices down, reduce inflationary pressure, and deliver direct benefits to voters.

That is a result that can be seen right away, perfectly aligned with Trump’s style.

But capturing Maduro is only the first step.

The bigger question is how the United States will pressure and control Venezuela’s oil resources to maximize its benefits, when a successor government in Caracas may not be fully aligned with Washington.

And after Venezuela, what comes next?

Which country or territory will become the next piece on the board, serving Donald Trump’s short-term but dramatic strategies?

IN POLITICS,
THE LOSER IS NOT THE WEAKEST

THE LOSER IS THE ONE
WHO CHOOSES THE WRONG TARGET

DONALD TRUMP
UNDERSTANDS THIS BETTER THAN MOST

HE DOES NOT NEED
A HISTORIC VICTORY

HE NEEDS A VICTORY
THAT CAN BE TOLD TO VOTERS

THIS IS NOT JUST A LESSON
FOR POLITICIANS

IT IS A LESSON
ABOUT THE GAME OF POWER