According to multiple reports, Uzbekistan is modernizing its air force with 24 Chinese J-10CE fighter jets. If the deal is completed, it will mark one of the clearest signs that Beijing is expanding its military influence into what has long been considered Russia’s traditional sphere of influence.

China is not simply selling fighter jets. The J-10CE package includes radar systems, missiles, avionics, pilot training, maintenance, and long-term logistics support. Once this entire ecosystem is established, China’s influence could last for decades.

Russia once held an almost complete monopoly on arms exports to Central Asia. However, more than four years of being bogged down in the war in Ukraine, combined with Western sanctions and international isolation, have significantly weakened Moscow’s prestige and attractiveness. Even its long-standing partners are increasingly seeking to diversify their arms suppliers and reduce dependence on Russia.

Uzbekistan continues to maintain its multi-vector foreign policy and security ties with Moscow. However, choosing the J-10CE suggests that Central Asian countries no longer automatically see Russia as their first choice. That may prove to be one of the most significant geopolitical consequences of the war in Ukraine.

#Uzbekistan #China #Russia #CentralAsia #Defense

Control Threat | Strategic Risk Analysis

From August 5 to 14, Taiwan will hold the Han Kuang 2026 military exercise, simulating a full-scale Chinese invasion.

The drills will include relocating weapons production, converting civilian factories for military use, protecting key sea lanes, and even deliberately slowing mobile internet speeds to test how the island functions under disrupted communications.

This is more than a military exercise. It is a test of whether Taiwan’s entire economy and society can transition into a wartime footing. No country prepares on this scale if it believes the threat of war remains distant. By mobilizing its industry, infrastructure, and civilian systems, Taiwan is signaling that it views the possibility of Chinese military action as a realistic scenario in the near future.

However, Taiwan’s defense does not depend on the island alone. If conflict breaks out, the level and speed of support from the United States, Japan, South Korea, and the broader international community will be among the key factors determining whether Taiwan can withstand China’s military pressure.

#Taiwan #China #Security #Military

Control Threat | Strategic Risk Analysis

Japan’s ruling LDP has proposed a sweeping intelligence overhaul, including the creation of an independent foreign intelligence agency, expanded intelligence-gathering powers, a new anti-espionage law, and a foreign-agent registration system.

After World War II, Japan adopted a unique security model. Tokyo kept its military and intelligence capabilities heavily constrained while relying on the U.S. security umbrella and American intelligence.

But as strategic competition with China, its biggest rival in East Asia, intensifies, that model no longer matches Japan’s ambitions. Building a dedicated foreign intelligence agency shows that Tokyo is gradually shedding the constraints imposed after World War II.

Japan is changing because the ambitions of a rising great power have outgrown the role that history once assigned to it.

#Japan #China #Intelligence #Security #Geopolitics

Control Threat | Strategic Risk Analysis