As Iran’s influence weakens, its allied militias in Iraq are coming under unprecedented pressure. The United States is no longer acting alone. The Gulf states are now openly pushing Baghdad to disarm the pro-Iranian militias. According to reports, the GCC has presented Iraq with detailed evidence of attacks against Gulf countries and demanded action. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has also set the end of September as the deadline for disarmament.

For years, these militias were one of Tehran’s most effective tools for projecting power without direct confrontation. But as Iraq, the United States, and the Gulf states converge on the goal of reducing Iranian influence, the political and military space available to these groups is shrinking rapidly.

Disarmament will almost certainly face fierce resistance and is unlikely to be completed quickly. Even so, the broader political trend is becoming increasingly clear. After Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran itself, Tehran’s proxy forces in Iraq could become the next front in the effort to dismantle the “Axis of Resistance.” If Baghdad follows through, it would mark one of the most significant blows to Iran’s regional influence in years. The peak of Iran’s influence in the Middle East may already be behind it.

#Iran #Iraq #MiddleEast #Security #Geopolitics

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Just as expected, as Iran’s power declines, countries that once maintained close ties with Tehran are beginning to seek new strategic partners.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s visit to Ankara is a clear example. The two countries expanded cooperation not only in energy but also in defense. President Erdogan announced that Iraq could supply up to one million barrels of oil per day to Turkey, while Turkish Petroleum (TPAO) officially became a partner in the BP-operated Kirkuk oil field. Erdogan described the agreement as a historic milestone in bilateral relations.

More importantly, Ankara is not merely buying Iraqi oil. It is investing directly in production while also offering to supply Iraq with defense industry products. This demonstrates Turkey’s growing influence over Iraq’s economy, energy sector, and security.

For years, Iran was Iraq’s most influential external power through political ties, religious networks, and allied militias. But as war, sanctions, and international pressure weaken Tehran, a strategic vacuum is emerging. Turkey is moving quickly to fill that space through investment, trade, and long-term strategic cooperation rather than proxy forces.

This also reflects a familiar rule of geopolitics. Countries are rarely loyal to allies; they are loyal to their own interests. As the balance of power shifts, partnerships shift with it. If Iran continues to weaken, Iraq may be only the first of several states gradually moving away from Tehran toward new regional power centers.

#Turkey #Iraq #Iran #MiddleEast #Geopolitics

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CENTCOM’s decision to base Task Force Talon Synapse, the first bilateral military AI task force between the United States and the UAE, is far more than a technology initiative.

The true mission of this task force is likely known only to Washington and Abu Dhabi. Publicly described roles such as AI for intelligence, critical infrastructure protection, and regional security monitoring are broad and reveal little about its actual scope.

What matters politically is that the United States chose the UAE.

If this is indeed an intelligence processing and analysis hub, it suggests the UAE has passed America’s highest standards for technological infrastructure, cybersecurity, data protection, and, above all, political trust.

Intelligence is among the most sensitive areas of military cooperation. The United States can sell weapons to many countries, but it does not easily share capabilities related to data, analysis, and decision-making.

In that sense, the UAE is no longer just a military partner. It is steadily becoming one of America’s most important political, technological, and security partners in the Gulf.

#USA #UAE #AI #CENTCOM #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #TheGulf

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Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has openly placed Turkey and Qatar in what he called the “Muslim Brotherhood axis,” while declaring that Israel will not allow Turkey to strengthen Syria. This was more than a tough statement. It signals that Israel is beginning to view Ankara as a long-term strategic challenger.

If Iran was a difficult problem, Turkey is an even more complicated one. Iran has spent years under sanctions, isolated, and with few real allies. Turkey, by contrast, is a NATO member, a U.S. treaty ally, one of the region’s strongest militaries, and home to a rapidly growing defense industry. Although Ankara often clashes with Washington and other Western partners, its geopolitical position is fundamentally different from Iran’s.

That makes direct military confrontation far more difficult for Israel. A war between the two countries would carry military and diplomatic consequences that neither side could easily control.

If competition continues to intensify, Syria is likely to become the main battleground. Israel wants Syria to remain too weak to pose a security threat or fall under Ankara’s sphere of influence. Turkey, meanwhile, wants a stable, friendly Syrian government strong enough to expand its influence across the Middle East. Those objectives are fundamentally incompatible.

The most important message in Katz’s remarks was this: “We will not allow Erdogan to strengthen Syria.” It shows that Israel is determined to prevent any regional power from shifting the balance against it while continuing to expand its strategic influence after Iran’s decline.

Iran may have been yesterday’s war. But the long-term strategic competition between Israel and Türkiye is likely to shape the Middle East for years to come, fought primarily through proxy battlefields rather than direct war.

#Israel #Turkey #Syria #MiddleEast #Geopolitics

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Yet Syria's future will depend not only on Israel and Türkiye, but also on how Ahmad al-Sharaa balances the interests of the regional players, especially the United States. If he fails to manage that balance, Syria could emerge from one civil war only to become the stage for a new confrontation between Israel and Türkiye.

In the Middle East, lasting peace exists only when one power is strong enough to impose order. Otherwise, struggles for power repeat themselves.
#Israel #Turkey #Syria #MiddleEast #USA
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