<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></title><description><![CDATA[Follow for insights. Request analysis when it matters.]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xyS4!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a74d8c3-dbc5-4446-99ec-4f47c5b545bf_256x256.png</url><title>Control Threat</title><link>https://www.controlthreat.org</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2026 15:21:42 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.controlthreat.org/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[controlthreat@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[controlthreat@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[controlthreat@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[controlthreat@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[Why Is China Rallying Its Allies? ]]></title><description><![CDATA[Watch now (29 secs) | East Asia may be approaching a dangerous turning point]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-is-china-rallying-its-allies</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-is-china-rallying-its-allies</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 13 Jun 2026 12:52:32 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/201866326/1f47cb5e86746c9fcf8091ba00e6e524.mp3" length="0" type="audio/mpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Trump's Easiest Target? ]]></title><description><![CDATA[Watch now |]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/trumps-easiest-target</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/trumps-easiest-target</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:59:55 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/201734307/d0cae60304cf740b272f6ac06ea04363.mp3" length="0" type="audio/mpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[100 Million Euros To Contain Israel? ]]></title><description><![CDATA[#EU #Lebanon #Hezbollah #Israel #Telaviv #Jerusalem]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/100-million-euros-to-contain-israel</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/100-million-euros-to-contain-israel</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 12 Jun 2026 03:59:45 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/201694960/2b81a28379aa1bf9bbbda29a12aad684.mp3" length="0" type="audio/mpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Control Threat | Strategic Risk Analysis</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[What Is the Belfast Riot Warning Us About?]]></title><description><![CDATA[If this happened in your country, which side would you be on?]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/what-is-the-belfast-riot-warning</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/what-is-the-belfast-riot-warning</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2026 17:22:42 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J785!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15d50e47-911f-4232-b8a6-bc965cbd6386_1080x719.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;440ea2b1-efe8-4f04-b15d-b1c5147361aa&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>If this happened in your country, which side would you be on?</p><p>Would you support opening the doors to more foreign newcomers, or tightening immigration controls to protect social stability?</p><p>That is the question now setting the streets of Belfast on fire.</p><p>Is this merely a temporary riot, or is it a sign of something much larger unfolding across Europe?</p><p>A man has completely lost his left eye and is now blind in his right eye as well after a knife attack in Belfast, Northern Ireland, part of the United Kingdom. The incident is now fueling anti-immigration riots across the city.</p><p>But what began as a criminal case has quickly evolved into a security crisis.</p><p>Protests escalated into riots. Buses and multiple vehicles were set on fire. Riot police were deployed across the city.</p><p>More concerning, around 200 masked youths reportedly appeared in suburban areas of Belfast amid fears that extremist groups were targeting immigrant communities.</p><p>And this may be the most important part of the story.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J785!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15d50e47-911f-4232-b8a6-bc965cbd6386_1080x719.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J785!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15d50e47-911f-4232-b8a6-bc965cbd6386_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J785!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15d50e47-911f-4232-b8a6-bc965cbd6386_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J785!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15d50e47-911f-4232-b8a6-bc965cbd6386_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J785!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15d50e47-911f-4232-b8a6-bc965cbd6386_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J785!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15d50e47-911f-4232-b8a6-bc965cbd6386_1080x719.png" width="1080" height="719" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/15d50e47-911f-4232-b8a6-bc965cbd6386_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:719,&quot;width&quot;:1080,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:273256,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/i/201483449?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15d50e47-911f-4232-b8a6-bc965cbd6386_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J785!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15d50e47-911f-4232-b8a6-bc965cbd6386_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J785!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15d50e47-911f-4232-b8a6-bc965cbd6386_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J785!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15d50e47-911f-4232-b8a6-bc965cbd6386_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!J785!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15d50e47-911f-4232-b8a6-bc965cbd6386_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>When people begin taking immigration enforcement into their own hands, the issue is no longer just immigration.</p><p>It becomes a question of trust in the state.</p><p>Because when a segment of society believes that the government is either unable or unwilling to maintain control, people begin looking for ways to act on their own.</p><p>That is often the moment when extremist movements begin to grow.</p><p>Reports from Belfast suggest that some protest groups have been moving through residential neighborhoods searching for homes occupied by immigrants.</p><p>Belfast may be an example of why U.S. Vice President JD Vance&#8217;s speech at the 2025 Munich Security Conference sent shockwaves across Europe.</p><p>At the time, Vance argued that the greatest threat facing Europe did not come from Russia or China, but from the fractures emerging within European societies themselves.</p><p>If disputes over immigration continue to spill into violence on the streets, the question is no longer who is right and who is wrong.</p><p>The question is whether the world is entering a new period of political and social instability.</p><p>Some things are worth repeating.</p><p>When citizens begin feeling that they must protect themselves, it is often a sign that trust in the state is beginning to fracture.</p><p>And when that trust starts to break down, what follows rarely remains confined to a single city.</p><p>And it rarely remains confined to Belfast.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Why Beijing Is Suddenly Worried About Vietnam?]]></title><description><![CDATA[There is a change taking place in Vietnam that is making Beijing more concerned than ever before.]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-beijing-is-suddenly-worried-about</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-beijing-is-suddenly-worried-about</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 15:43:34 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cM_L!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd49756e2-e7aa-4655-85e5-74e69ad2ed51_1536x1024.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;1b89d053-36e9-4549-b24e-42760dd0f4d6&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p><strong>There is a change taking place in Vietnam that is making Beijing more concerned than ever before. And very few people have noticed it.</strong></p><p>What worries China most right now is not Vietnam&#8217;s military. It is the new direction of Vietnam&#8217;s strategy.</p><p>Vietnam is increasingly turning to South Korea, Japan, Israel, the United States, and India for weapons. Not Russia. And certainly not China. Instead, it is looking toward countries that are among America&#8217;s closest partners.</p><p>Many people see only the arms deals. But the real change is not about who supplies Vietnam&#8217;s weapons. The real change is that Vietnam is gradually moving away from China.</p><p>When Hanoi turns to America&#8217;s close partners instead of countries that are traditionally seen as being within Beijing&#8217;s orbit, such as Russia, it is a sign that Vietnam&#8217;s strategic thinking may be evolving.</p><p>But the most important shift is not in the military balance. It is in Vietnam&#8217;s willingness to accept Chinese influence.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cM_L!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd49756e2-e7aa-4655-85e5-74e69ad2ed51_1536x1024.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cM_L!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd49756e2-e7aa-4655-85e5-74e69ad2ed51_1536x1024.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cM_L!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd49756e2-e7aa-4655-85e5-74e69ad2ed51_1536x1024.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cM_L!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd49756e2-e7aa-4655-85e5-74e69ad2ed51_1536x1024.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cM_L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd49756e2-e7aa-4655-85e5-74e69ad2ed51_1536x1024.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cM_L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd49756e2-e7aa-4655-85e5-74e69ad2ed51_1536x1024.png" width="1456" height="971" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d49756e2-e7aa-4655-85e5-74e69ad2ed51_1536x1024.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:971,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2885450,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/i/201319093?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd49756e2-e7aa-4655-85e5-74e69ad2ed51_1536x1024.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cM_L!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd49756e2-e7aa-4655-85e5-74e69ad2ed51_1536x1024.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cM_L!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd49756e2-e7aa-4655-85e5-74e69ad2ed51_1536x1024.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cM_L!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd49756e2-e7aa-4655-85e5-74e69ad2ed51_1536x1024.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cM_L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd49756e2-e7aa-4655-85e5-74e69ad2ed51_1536x1024.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Vietnam understands that it cannot compete with China militarily. But it also appears increasingly unwilling to let China determine what Vietnam is allowed to do.</p><p>Hanoi seems less and less interested in living in a regional order where every morning begins with the same question:</p><p><strong>&#8220;Will Beijing approve of what we do today?&#8221;</strong></p><p>In other words, the most significant change is not the number of weapons Vietnam buys.</p><p>It is the growing reluctance of Hanoi to allow Beijing to shape its strategic choices.</p><p>That is what China has reason to pay attention to.</p><p>Because the erosion of influence is often far more dangerous than a new weapons contract.</p><p>The signs always appear before a crisis. The problem is that very few people notice them.</p><p>The real question is not whether friction between Vietnam and China will emerge.</p><p>The real question is this:</p><p><strong>What will China do if Vietnam no longer behaves the way Beijing expects it to?</strong></p><p>And beyond that, there is an even larger question.</p><p>Can Vietnam and China ever return to the era described by President Ho Chi Minh when he famously said:</p><p><strong>&#8220;Vietnam&#8211;China friendship shall remain evergreen and endure for generations to come.&#8221;</strong></p><p>Or is that era gradually becoming a thing of the past?</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Not Tai Wan. Vietnam]]></title><description><![CDATA[Japan and South Korea may be betting on Vietnam more than many Vietnamese are betting on themselves.]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/not-tai-wan-vietnam</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/not-tai-wan-vietnam</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 30 May 2026 17:36:08 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!p8DS!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff49f05b-1846-4aca-9edf-d7227ad48079_1672x941.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;3a35bba6-e48c-4604-aee3-a0237257d1bb&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p><strong>Japan and South Korea may be betting on Vietnam more than many Vietnamese are betting on themselves.</strong></p><p>And there is a reason they are willing to invest tens of billions of dollars to do so.</p><p>What is remarkable is that many Vietnamese still do not realize it.</p><p>Many people assume that Tokyo and Seoul are focused primarily on Taiwan.</p><p>But Taiwan is only the visible part of a much larger power struggle unfolding across East Asia.</p><p>What Japan and South Korea truly fear is a future in which the regional balance of power shifts dramatically.</p><p>If that happens, they may discover that relying on the United States alone is no longer enough.</p><p>They will need additional countries with strategic importance capable of helping prevent the region from falling completely into China&#8217;s orbit.</p><p>This is where Vietnam begins to stand out.</p><p>Many people view Vietnam&#8217;s relationship with Japan and South Korea through the lens of factories, industrial parks, and foreign investment.</p><p>But consider this carefully.</p><p>If cheap labor were all they needed, why would they place such significant bets on Vietnam rather than dozens of other countries?</p><p>Because what makes Vietnam important is not just economics.</p><p>It is geography.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!p8DS!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff49f05b-1846-4aca-9edf-d7227ad48079_1672x941.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!p8DS!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff49f05b-1846-4aca-9edf-d7227ad48079_1672x941.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!p8DS!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff49f05b-1846-4aca-9edf-d7227ad48079_1672x941.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!p8DS!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff49f05b-1846-4aca-9edf-d7227ad48079_1672x941.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!p8DS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff49f05b-1846-4aca-9edf-d7227ad48079_1672x941.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!p8DS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff49f05b-1846-4aca-9edf-d7227ad48079_1672x941.png" width="1456" height="819" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ff49f05b-1846-4aca-9edf-d7227ad48079_1672x941.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:819,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2299322,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/i/199890773?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff49f05b-1846-4aca-9edf-d7227ad48079_1672x941.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!p8DS!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff49f05b-1846-4aca-9edf-d7227ad48079_1672x941.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!p8DS!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff49f05b-1846-4aca-9edf-d7227ad48079_1672x941.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!p8DS!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff49f05b-1846-4aca-9edf-d7227ad48079_1672x941.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!p8DS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff49f05b-1846-4aca-9edf-d7227ad48079_1672x941.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Vietnam sits alongside some of the maritime routes that help sustain Japan and South Korea.</p><p>These sea lanes do not simply carry energy and goods.</p><p>They carry the prosperity of Japan and South Korea as well.</p><p>If the balance of power in this region changes, the costs for Tokyo and Seoul could be enormous.</p><p>But geography is still not the whole story.</p><p>Vietnam possesses another characteristic that few countries in the region share.</p><p>Not every country combines a strategically important location with a deep sense of historical grievance and suspicion toward China.</p><p>Not every country has a strong incentive to avoid seeing an overwhelmingly dominant China right on its doorstep.</p><p>That is what makes Vietnam a unique partner in the long-term strategic calculations of Tokyo and Seoul.</p><p>This is why Japan and South Korea are not investing in Vietnam simply to generate profits.</p><p>They are investing in a country they hope will not fall completely into Beijing&#8217;s orbit.</p><p>Because if Vietnam remains strong enough to preserve its independence and maintain strategic distance from China, Japan and South Korea gain an extremely important strategic buffer to their south.</p><p>But if Vietnam&#8217;s trajectory changes, the entire security environment of East Asia could change with it.</p><p>That is what keeps many strategists in Tokyo and Seoul awake at night.</p><p>It is no coincidence that Japan and South Korea have steadily expanded investment, shifted supply chains, and deepened security ties with Vietnam.</p><p>Because they understand one thing very clearly:</p><p>In an Asia moving ever closer to a Cold War-style competition for power, no country positioned alongside the South China Sea will be able to stay on the sidelines forever.</p><p>And Vietnam may be emerging as one of the most important strategic pieces on the regional chessboard.</p><p>The question is:</p><p>What do Japan and South Korea see in Vietnam that many Vietnamese still have not recognized?</p><p>And is Vietnam prepared to take the risks that come with this rare strategic opportunity, or will it continue to remain safely trapped in a relationship filled with lingering resentment toward those often described as both comrades and brothers?</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Almost Everyone Misunderstands Why China Wants Taiwan]]></title><description><![CDATA[Japan and South Korea are racing to prepare for war. Not because Tokyo or Seoul are about to be attacked, but because their security future may be decided in Taiwan.]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/almost-everyone-misunderstands-why</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/almost-everyone-misunderstands-why</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 29 May 2026 15:44:30 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ua8C!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a035560-bc7c-4049-9762-c4b29688b754_1537x1023.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;835923c4-805b-4ae6-8c57-84ad93a6b2bf&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p><strong>Japan and South Korea are racing to prepare for war.</strong> Not because Tokyo or Seoul are about to be attacked, but because their security future may be decided in Taiwan.</p><p>If Beijing gains control of Taiwan, China would acquire an extraordinarily powerful strategic lever over Japan and South Korea without firing a single shot.</p><p>What makes this even more significant is that there are growing signs that Beijing is accelerating its efforts to achieve this objective.</p><p>Taiwan sits at the center of the First Island Chain and alongside some of East Asia&#8217;s most important sea lanes. Japan and South Korea share the same critical vulnerability: they depend on the sea for their survival.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ua8C!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a035560-bc7c-4049-9762-c4b29688b754_1537x1023.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ua8C!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a035560-bc7c-4049-9762-c4b29688b754_1537x1023.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ua8C!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a035560-bc7c-4049-9762-c4b29688b754_1537x1023.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ua8C!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a035560-bc7c-4049-9762-c4b29688b754_1537x1023.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ua8C!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a035560-bc7c-4049-9762-c4b29688b754_1537x1023.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ua8C!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a035560-bc7c-4049-9762-c4b29688b754_1537x1023.png" width="1456" height="969" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4a035560-bc7c-4049-9762-c4b29688b754_1537x1023.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:969,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:3179793,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/i/199758543?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a035560-bc7c-4049-9762-c4b29688b754_1537x1023.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ua8C!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a035560-bc7c-4049-9762-c4b29688b754_1537x1023.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ua8C!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a035560-bc7c-4049-9762-c4b29688b754_1537x1023.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ua8C!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a035560-bc7c-4049-9762-c4b29688b754_1537x1023.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ua8C!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a035560-bc7c-4049-9762-c4b29688b754_1537x1023.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>More than 90% of their imported energy and over 99% of their international trade rely on strategic maritime routes that pass near Taiwan. Oil, natural gas, industrial materials, and consumer goods all move by sea.</p><p>If these routes were disrupted, Japan and South Korea would face far more than an energy crisis. Trade would suffer, supply chains would be disrupted, and their economies would come under severe strain.</p><p>But the most important issue is not oil or trade.</p><p>If China were to control Taiwan, it would gain its first real opportunity to break through the containment of the First Island Chain and project military power into the Western Pacific.</p><p>That could fundamentally alter the balance of power across East Asia.</p><p>Taiwan could become a strategic platform that allows Beijing to deploy forces closer to Japan and South Korea, threaten their security more directly, and challenge the defensive network that the United States and its allies have spent decades building across the region.</p><p>In other words, national reunification or reclaiming what China considers lost territory may be only part of the story. Taiwan&#8217;s greatest value lies in the strategic power it provides.</p><p>That is why many great power competitions throughout history have not revolved around natural resources alone. They have revolved around geography.</p><p>But here is what makes the situation even more interesting.</p><p>Japan and South Korea have already begun preparing for the worst-case scenario.</p><p>They are placing a strategic bet on another country.</p><p>If that country aligns with Japan and South Korea, the balance of power in East Asia could change dramatically.</p><p>And the most surprising part is this:</p><p>That country is not the United States.</p><p>The next video will explain which country it is, and why.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[How Long Can Vietnam Stay Neutral?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Vietnam&#8217;s Greatest Enemy Is Not China.]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/how-long-can-vietnam-stay-neutral</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/how-long-can-vietnam-stay-neutral</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2026 14:44:26 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DFmY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1dd4796-9d95-460e-bab2-54290d5503f7_1537x1023.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;99ba7cb5-ef4e-4b15-a3a9-1e9f0f1fc377&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>Vietnam&#8217;s Greatest Enemy Is Not China. It Is Having No One Willing To Fight Alongside It.</p><p>For years, Vietnam has tried to position itself between the United States and China. No military alliance, no full alignment with either side, while maintaining relations with both. But the world is changing rapidly. War has already erupted in Europe. Conflict has spread across the Middle East. And Asia is increasingly becoming the main battleground in the strategic competition between Washington and Beijing.</p><p>The Russia-Ukraine war forced many smaller nations to confront a disturbing reality: countries that stand alone are far easier to intimidate. International law still matters, but when tensions escalate, what ultimately decides the outcome is still power, deterrence, and the network of allies standing behind you. In every confrontation, nations are always more cautious of a united bloc than of a country standing alone. That is why Russia still has not dared to directly attack a NATO member state.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DFmY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1dd4796-9d95-460e-bab2-54290d5503f7_1537x1023.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DFmY!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1dd4796-9d95-460e-bab2-54290d5503f7_1537x1023.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DFmY!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1dd4796-9d95-460e-bab2-54290d5503f7_1537x1023.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DFmY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1dd4796-9d95-460e-bab2-54290d5503f7_1537x1023.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DFmY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1dd4796-9d95-460e-bab2-54290d5503f7_1537x1023.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DFmY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1dd4796-9d95-460e-bab2-54290d5503f7_1537x1023.png" width="1456" height="969" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c1dd4796-9d95-460e-bab2-54290d5503f7_1537x1023.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:969,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:3049307,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/i/199468618?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1dd4796-9d95-460e-bab2-54290d5503f7_1537x1023.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DFmY!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1dd4796-9d95-460e-bab2-54290d5503f7_1537x1023.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DFmY!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1dd4796-9d95-460e-bab2-54290d5503f7_1537x1023.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DFmY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1dd4796-9d95-460e-bab2-54290d5503f7_1537x1023.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DFmY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1dd4796-9d95-460e-bab2-54290d5503f7_1537x1023.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>In international politics, the principle of &#8220;not threatening the use of force&#8221; is often not because the world has become more moral, but because countries like Vietnam do not yet possess enough military deterrence against major powers.</p><p>A country that is neither strong enough on its own nor backed by anyone willing to fight alongside it is in the most dangerous position of all. And that is becoming an increasingly serious question for Vietnam. In a world dividing into rival blocs more aggressively than ever before, how long can Vietnam continue to remain neutral?</p><p>The greatest risk facing Vietnam is not offending China or the United States.<br>It is realizing, only when real danger arrives, that no one is willing to come to its aid.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Why Small Countries Are Running Out Of Time?]]></title><description><![CDATA[When two friends are fighting, you may think that staying neutral will keep you safe.]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-small-countries-are-running-out</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-small-countries-are-running-out</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2026 12:40:48 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bgWr!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35d99e4e-9680-4e05-adac-775396034a95_1537x1023.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;01e53d3b-c2bb-42c2-a0f0-227129fabdd2&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>When two friends are fighting, you may think that staying neutral will keep you safe. But are you really safe?</p><p>In conflicts, the person standing in the middle can sometimes become the most isolated one.</p><p>International politics works the same way. Many smaller countries believe that avoiding alliances will keep them secure. But the world does not work that simply.</p><p>When you drive on the road, following the rules does not automatically guarantee safety. There will still be people who run red lights, drift into your lane, or deliberately crash into you.</p><p>If a major power one day decides to pressure or attack your country, who will stand beside you?</p><p>Refusing alliances also means remaining alone. A country unwilling to protect anyone may also find that no one is willing to protect it when danger arrives.</p><p>In the modern world, no country can maintain long-term security completely on its own.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bgWr!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35d99e4e-9680-4e05-adac-775396034a95_1537x1023.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bgWr!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35d99e4e-9680-4e05-adac-775396034a95_1537x1023.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bgWr!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35d99e4e-9680-4e05-adac-775396034a95_1537x1023.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bgWr!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35d99e4e-9680-4e05-adac-775396034a95_1537x1023.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bgWr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35d99e4e-9680-4e05-adac-775396034a95_1537x1023.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bgWr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35d99e4e-9680-4e05-adac-775396034a95_1537x1023.png" width="1456" height="969" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/35d99e4e-9680-4e05-adac-775396034a95_1537x1023.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:969,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2567236,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/i/199314051?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35d99e4e-9680-4e05-adac-775396034a95_1537x1023.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bgWr!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35d99e4e-9680-4e05-adac-775396034a95_1537x1023.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bgWr!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35d99e4e-9680-4e05-adac-775396034a95_1537x1023.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bgWr!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35d99e4e-9680-4e05-adac-775396034a95_1537x1023.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bgWr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35d99e4e-9680-4e05-adac-775396034a95_1537x1023.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Everything is changing. The global security environment is becoming more dangerous. As the world grows increasingly divided into rival blocs, countries that stand alone become easier targets for pressure from major powers, because there is no strong network of allies behind them to create deterrence.</p><p>In every confrontation, people are always more cautious around a united group than around someone standing alone.</p><p>The world does not operate on morality alone. Power and deterrence still determine how nations treat one another.</p><p>In international relations, the principle of &#8220;not threatening the use of force&#8221; is often not because the world has become more moral, but because many countries simply lack the power to create meaningful deterrence.</p><p>And when a country is both weak and lacking strong allies behind it, that is often the most dangerous position of all.</p><p>For a small nation, the greatest risk is not offending one major power or another. The greatest risk is realizing, only when danger arrives, that no one is willing to stand beside you.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Why Vietnam Must Be Cautious About Taiwan?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Taiwan is gradually becoming a strategic risk for Vietnam.]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-vietnam-must-be-cautious-about</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-vietnam-must-be-cautious-about</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 21 May 2026 18:15:14 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s5jG!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F446425b0-a7c4-4156-a85c-26f952ed9e5b_1537x1023.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;304f2b44-767c-4a3b-a187-eaad34b406d4&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>Taiwan is gradually becoming a strategic risk for Vietnam.<br>Because China may have already found a way to take back the island without firing a single shot.</p><p>Taiwan imports nearly 96% of its energy. LNG alone, which supplies almost half of the island&#8217;s electricity, has reserves lasting only around eight days. Eight days. That is the entire buffer between stability and chaos.</p><p>Instead of launching a direct naval assault, China could use coast guard vessels, maritime militias, and paramilitary ships to surround Taiwan. No need to open fire. Just block. Just pressure LNG and fuel tankers into turning back before they ever reach Taiwanese ports.</p><p>And after that, everything could begin collapsing on its own.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s5jG!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F446425b0-a7c4-4156-a85c-26f952ed9e5b_1537x1023.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s5jG!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F446425b0-a7c4-4156-a85c-26f952ed9e5b_1537x1023.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s5jG!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F446425b0-a7c4-4156-a85c-26f952ed9e5b_1537x1023.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s5jG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F446425b0-a7c4-4156-a85c-26f952ed9e5b_1537x1023.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s5jG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F446425b0-a7c4-4156-a85c-26f952ed9e5b_1537x1023.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s5jG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F446425b0-a7c4-4156-a85c-26f952ed9e5b_1537x1023.png" width="1456" height="969" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/446425b0-a7c4-4156-a85c-26f952ed9e5b_1537x1023.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:969,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2115693,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/i/198739080?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F446425b0-a7c4-4156-a85c-26f952ed9e5b_1537x1023.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s5jG!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F446425b0-a7c4-4156-a85c-26f952ed9e5b_1537x1023.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s5jG!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F446425b0-a7c4-4156-a85c-26f952ed9e5b_1537x1023.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s5jG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F446425b0-a7c4-4156-a85c-26f952ed9e5b_1537x1023.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s5jG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F446425b0-a7c4-4156-a85c-26f952ed9e5b_1537x1023.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Within weeks, electricity rationing would begin. Transportation networks would start breaking down. Telecommunications would become unstable. Major manufacturers like TSMC could be forced to halt operations. Panic buying would spread. Then fear.</p><p>But the most frightening part is not that this scenario could happen. It is that it could happen without creating any clear justification for international intervention. No gunfire. No obvious invasion. Just pressure. Slow, calculated, and increasingly irreversible.</p><p>In geopolitics, there is an unwritten rule: the most dangerous place to stand is too close to a power that is quietly losing its ability to defend itself without realizing it. And that may soon become a very serious consideration for Vietnam.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Paracels: Only China Can Use Them?]]></title><description><![CDATA[There&#8217;s a paradox very few people are willing to talk about when it comes to the dispute between China and Vietnam.]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/paracels-only-china-can-use-them</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/paracels-only-china-can-use-them</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 26 Apr 2026 01:16:52 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Icts!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6b5416db-ba3e-4636-bcff-a48c7b807e6c_1080x719.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;7c93c6fd-f1c7-4a0a-96a5-1be5e305b564&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>There&#8217;s a paradox very few people are willing to talk about when it comes to the dispute between China and Vietnam. People talk a lot about sovereignty, but almost no one asks the more important question: what is the point of holding the Paracel Islands?</p><p>The Paracels are not rich in natural resources, as many assume. Their real value is strategic, rooted in military positioning and the ability to influence key shipping lanes in the South China Sea.</p><p>But a strategic position only matters if you have the military strength, economic capacity, and political influence to actually use it.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Icts!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6b5416db-ba3e-4636-bcff-a48c7b807e6c_1080x719.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Icts!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6b5416db-ba3e-4636-bcff-a48c7b807e6c_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Icts!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6b5416db-ba3e-4636-bcff-a48c7b807e6c_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Icts!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6b5416db-ba3e-4636-bcff-a48c7b807e6c_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Icts!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6b5416db-ba3e-4636-bcff-a48c7b807e6c_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Icts!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6b5416db-ba3e-4636-bcff-a48c7b807e6c_1080x719.png" width="1080" height="719" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6b5416db-ba3e-4636-bcff-a48c7b807e6c_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:719,&quot;width&quot;:1080,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1073476,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.net/i/195488837?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6b5416db-ba3e-4636-bcff-a48c7b807e6c_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Icts!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6b5416db-ba3e-4636-bcff-a48c7b807e6c_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Icts!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6b5416db-ba3e-4636-bcff-a48c7b807e6c_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Icts!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6b5416db-ba3e-4636-bcff-a48c7b807e6c_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Icts!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6b5416db-ba3e-4636-bcff-a48c7b807e6c_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>If you lack the ability to convert that advantage into real power, then holding a strategic flashpoint can sometimes become more of a burden than a benefit.</p><p>And here&#8217;s where it becomes controversial: a superpower like China is far more capable of leveraging a position like this than a smaller country.</p><p>So the question is no longer who is right or wrong, but this: who has the capacity to turn the Paracels into a strategic advantage, and who is simply holding a liability?</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[China Dominates Robot Warfare]]></title><description><![CDATA[China is not just building robots that look like humans.]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/china-dominates-robot-warfare</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/china-dominates-robot-warfare</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 15 Apr 2026 13:28:24 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hob4!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5f1ddfc-127a-440b-944a-38cd2e9aca79_1080x719.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;9320f2d4-4dc7-4980-bf68-3df269079de2&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>China is not just building robots that look like humans. It is removing the final barriers to war.</p><p>In traditional warfare, there have always been three limits.</p><p>First, casualties. When soldiers die, public pressure builds, forcing governments to reconsider.</p><p>Second, human hesitation.<br>People can panic, feel fear, and pull back.</p><p>Third, deniability.<br>When captured, there is identity, evidence, and testimony.</p><p>But with robots, all three limits disappear.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hob4!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5f1ddfc-127a-440b-944a-38cd2e9aca79_1080x719.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hob4!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5f1ddfc-127a-440b-944a-38cd2e9aca79_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hob4!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5f1ddfc-127a-440b-944a-38cd2e9aca79_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hob4!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5f1ddfc-127a-440b-944a-38cd2e9aca79_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hob4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5f1ddfc-127a-440b-944a-38cd2e9aca79_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hob4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5f1ddfc-127a-440b-944a-38cd2e9aca79_1080x719.png" width="1080" height="719" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e5f1ddfc-127a-440b-944a-38cd2e9aca79_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:719,&quot;width&quot;:1080,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1117870,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.net/i/194290848?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5f1ddfc-127a-440b-944a-38cd2e9aca79_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hob4!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5f1ddfc-127a-440b-944a-38cd2e9aca79_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hob4!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5f1ddfc-127a-440b-944a-38cd2e9aca79_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hob4!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5f1ddfc-127a-440b-944a-38cd2e9aca79_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Hob4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5f1ddfc-127a-440b-944a-38cd2e9aca79_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>No casualties.<br>No fear.<br>No testimony.</p><p>More importantly, China has the capability to mass-produce them at low cost, something no other country can match.</p><p>The question is no longer, &#8220;Should we test it?&#8221; but &#8220;Why haven&#8217;t we?&#8221;</p><p>When risk approaches zero, war is no longer something to avoid.<br>It becomes something to experiment with.</p><p>And the easiest places to test it are those closest next door.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Trump Didn’t Change]]></title><description><![CDATA[U.S.]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/trump-didnt-change</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/trump-didnt-change</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 11 Apr 2026 13:05:09 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Upb7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd1c7989c-ca3b-4084-a4d1-962764679d9d_1080x719.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>U.S. Democrats and Republicans are not truly opposites. At least, not in the way you think.</p><p>Before he had power, Donald Trump was a system disruptor. He opposed the elites, rejected globalization, challenged traditional politics, and spoke out against war. He stood outside the system and attacked it from every direction.</p><p>But once he entered the White House, everything changed. He was no longer breaking the system. He was using it.<br>Using state power to reshape the rules, intervene militarily, and pressure allies to serve his objectives.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Upb7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd1c7989c-ca3b-4084-a4d1-962764679d9d_1080x719.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Upb7!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd1c7989c-ca3b-4084-a4d1-962764679d9d_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Upb7!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd1c7989c-ca3b-4084-a4d1-962764679d9d_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Upb7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd1c7989c-ca3b-4084-a4d1-962764679d9d_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Upb7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd1c7989c-ca3b-4084-a4d1-962764679d9d_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Upb7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd1c7989c-ca3b-4084-a4d1-962764679d9d_1080x719.png" width="1080" height="719" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d1c7989c-ca3b-4084-a4d1-962764679d9d_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:719,&quot;width&quot;:1080,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1184039,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.net/i/193883837?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd1c7989c-ca3b-4084-a4d1-962764679d9d_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Upb7!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd1c7989c-ca3b-4084-a4d1-962764679d9d_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Upb7!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd1c7989c-ca3b-4084-a4d1-962764679d9d_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Upb7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd1c7989c-ca3b-4084-a4d1-962764679d9d_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Upb7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd1c7989c-ca3b-4084-a4d1-962764679d9d_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>And this is not just the story of one man or one party.<br>Anyone who holds power must operate within the logic of power.</p><p>In politics, the real question is not who holds power, but what happens when they do.</p><p>Power does not change people. It reveals who they truly are.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Nhận diện sớm các rủi ro chính trị mang tính quyết định]]></title><description><![CDATA[Ph&#226;n t&#237;ch &#273;&#7847;y &#273;&#7911;:]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/nhan-dien-som-cac-rui-ro-chinh-tri</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/nhan-dien-som-cac-rui-ro-chinh-tri</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 11 Apr 2026 12:37:56 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xyS4!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a74d8c3-dbc5-4446-99ec-4f47c5b545bf_256x256.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Ph&#226;n t&#237;ch &#273;&#7847;y &#273;&#7911;:</strong></h3><p>R&#7911;i ro ch&#237;nh tr&#7883; kh&#244;ng &#273;&#7871;n b&#7845;t ng&#7901;. N&#243; lu&#244;n &#273;&#7875; l&#7841;i d&#7845;u hi&#7879;u, nh&#432;ng &#273;a s&#7889; &#273;&#7873;u b&#7887; qua.</p><p>Control Threat t&#7891;n t&#7841;i &#273;&#7875; ph&#225;t hi&#7879;n nh&#7919;ng d&#7845;u hi&#7879;u &#273;&#243; tr&#432;&#7899;c khi m&#7885;i th&#7913; tr&#7903; n&#234;n kh&#244;ng th&#7875; &#273;&#7843;o ng&#432;&#7907;c.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>Ch&#250;ng t&#244;i l&#224;m g&#236;?</strong></h3><p>Control Threat cung c&#7845;p c&#7843;nh b&#225;o s&#7899;m v&#224; ph&#226;n t&#237;ch chi&#7871;n l&#432;&#7907;c v&#7873;:</p><ul><li><p>B&#7845;t &#7893;n ch&#237;nh tr&#7883;</p></li><li><p>Chuy&#7875;n d&#7883;ch quy&#7873;n l&#7921;c b&#234;n trong h&#7879; th&#7889;ng</p></li><li><p>Ho&#7841;t &#273;&#7897;ng &#7843;nh h&#432;&#7903;ng v&#224; c&#225;c t&#225;c nh&#226;n &#7849;n</p></li><li><p>Nh&#7919;ng b&#432;&#7899;c &#273;i chi&#7871;n l&#432;&#7907;c tr&#432;&#7899;c khi ch&#250;ng l&#7897; di&#7879;n</p></li></ul><p>Ch&#250;ng t&#244;i t&#7853;p trung v&#224;o nh&#7919;ng g&#236; x&#7843;y ra, <strong>tr&#432;&#7899;c khi n&#243; xu&#7845;t hi&#7879;n tr&#234;n ti&#234;u &#273;&#7873; tin t&#7913;c</strong>.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>T&#7841;i sao &#273;i&#7873;u n&#224;y quan tr&#7885;ng?</strong></h3><p>Khi m&#7897;t cu&#7897;c kh&#7911;ng ho&#7843;ng tr&#7903; n&#234;n r&#245; r&#224;ng, k&#7871;t c&#7909;c c&#7911;a n&#243; th&#432;&#7901;ng &#273;&#227; &#273;&#432;&#7907;c &#273;&#7883;nh h&#236;nh.</p><p>Ph&#7847;n l&#7899;n ph&#226;n t&#237;ch ch&#7881; gi&#7843;i th&#237;ch &#273;i&#7873;u &#273;&#227; x&#7843;y ra, ch&#250;ng t&#244;i t&#7853;p trung v&#224;o &#273;i&#7873;u s&#7855;p x&#7843;y ra.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>B&#7841;n nh&#7853;n &#273;&#432;&#7907;c g&#236;?</strong></h3><ul><li><p>D&#7845;u hi&#7879;u s&#7899;m m&#224; ng&#432;&#7901;i kh&#225;c b&#7887; qua</p></li><li><p>K&#7883;ch b&#7843;n tr&#432;&#7899;c khi quy&#7871;t &#273;&#7883;nh quan tr&#7885;ng di&#7877;n ra</p></li><li><p>G&#243;c nh&#236;n chi&#7871;n l&#432;&#7907;c v&#432;&#7907;t qua b&#7873; m&#7863;t tin t&#7913;c</p></li></ul><p>Kh&#244;ng ph&#7843;i th&#234;m th&#244;ng tin, m&#224; l&#224; hi&#7875;u &#273;&#250;ng &#273;i&#7873;u &#273;ang th&#7921;c s&#7921; di&#7877;n ra.</p><div><hr></div><h3><strong>D&#224;nh cho ai?</strong></h3><ul><li><p>Ng&#432;&#7901;i l&#224;m chi&#7871;n l&#432;&#7907;c ch&#237;nh tr&#7883;</p></li><li><p>Ng&#432;&#7901;i ra quy&#7871;t &#273;&#7883;nh</p></li><li><p>Ng&#432;&#7901;i &#273;ang theo d&#245;i m&#7897;t t&#236;nh hu&#7889;ng quan tr&#7885;ng</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h3><strong>K&#7871;t lu&#7853;n</strong></h3><p>N&#7871;u b&#7841;n &#273;ang theo d&#245;i m&#7897;t t&#236;nh hu&#7889;ng, c&#243; th&#7875; b&#7841;n &#273;&#227; ch&#7853;m.</p><p>C&#226;u h&#7887;i th&#7921;c s&#7921; l&#224;: B&#7841;n c&#243; nh&#236;n th&#7845;y n&#243; &#273;&#7911; s&#7899;m hay kh&#244;ng?</p><p>&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;</p><h3><strong>H&#7907;p t&#225;c</strong></h3><p>Ch&#250;ng t&#244;i cung c&#7845;p d&#7883;ch v&#7909; c&#7843;nh b&#225;o s&#7899;m r&#7911;i ro ch&#237;nh tr&#7883;, gi&#250;p &#273;&#7883;nh h&#236;nh c&#225;c quy&#7871;t &#273;&#7883;nh chi&#7871;n l&#432;&#7907;c quan tr&#7885;ng.</p><blockquote><p><strong>Email:</strong> Contact@ControlThreat.net</p></blockquote>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Why The Gulf Fears Iran’s Collapse?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Why are Gulf countries repeatedly attacked by Iran yet still fear Iran&#8217;s collapse?]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-the-gulf-fears-irans-collapse</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-the-gulf-fears-irans-collapse</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 07 Apr 2026 12:35:55 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hihh!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc2bde8f-1e84-4eb9-b0d0-902acd6ba854_1080x719.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;7d9ac710-34ca-4eb9-a7e5-e873acf2426a&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>Why are Gulf countries repeatedly attacked by Iran yet still fear Iran&#8217;s collapse?</p><p>If Iran collapses, Israel would emerge as the dominant power in the Middle East, putting the Gulf under pressure.</p><p>Iran and Israel are not just adversaries.<br>They are also restraining each other and the Gulf benefits from that balance.</p><p>And there is a more important reality.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hihh!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc2bde8f-1e84-4eb9-b0d0-902acd6ba854_1080x719.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hihh!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc2bde8f-1e84-4eb9-b0d0-902acd6ba854_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hihh!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc2bde8f-1e84-4eb9-b0d0-902acd6ba854_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hihh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc2bde8f-1e84-4eb9-b0d0-902acd6ba854_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hihh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc2bde8f-1e84-4eb9-b0d0-902acd6ba854_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hihh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc2bde8f-1e84-4eb9-b0d0-902acd6ba854_1080x719.png" width="1080" height="719" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cc2bde8f-1e84-4eb9-b0d0-902acd6ba854_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:719,&quot;width&quot;:1080,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:731271,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.net/i/193456637?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc2bde8f-1e84-4eb9-b0d0-902acd6ba854_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hihh!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc2bde8f-1e84-4eb9-b0d0-902acd6ba854_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hihh!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc2bde8f-1e84-4eb9-b0d0-902acd6ba854_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hihh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc2bde8f-1e84-4eb9-b0d0-902acd6ba854_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hihh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc2bde8f-1e84-4eb9-b0d0-902acd6ba854_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>Washington needs to maintain military bases in the Gulf to contain Tehran.<br>If the Iranian threat disappears, the Gulf loses its strategic value in the eyes of the United States along with the security guarantees and economic benefits that come with it.</p><p>That is why the Gulf does not want Iran to be destroyed. They only want it to be contained. Because in politics, your enemy can sometimes be the most reliable foundation you have.</p><div class="pullquote"><p style="text-align: center;">Most people only see what happened.</p><p style="text-align: center;">Few understand what is actually happening.</p><p style="text-align: center;">Control Threat provides early warnings of decisive political risks.</p><p style="text-align: center;">Request a strategic brief:</p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>&#8594; <a href="https://www.controlthreat.net/p/services">Services</a></strong></p></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Follow for early risk signals</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Is Russia Using Vietnam Against China?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Russia is pulling Vietnam into a bigger game with China that most people don&#8217;t see.]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/vietnam-in-russias-game</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/vietnam-in-russias-game</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 03 Apr 2026 13:13:23 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NPbD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f98db0d-c50f-4b1f-b94f-fa111d84fcaa_1080x719.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;bb4ef911-da32-477a-af3c-bd0931ba6da7&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p><strong>Russia is pulling Vietnam into a bigger game with China that most people don&#8217;t see.</strong></p><p>Russia and China appear to be closely aligned. But that alignment is only temporary.</p><p>Two ambitious powers sharing a common border cannot maintain peace indefinitely.<br>Conflict will return. It is not a question of <em>if</em>, but <em>when</em>.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NPbD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f98db0d-c50f-4b1f-b94f-fa111d84fcaa_1080x719.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NPbD!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f98db0d-c50f-4b1f-b94f-fa111d84fcaa_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NPbD!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f98db0d-c50f-4b1f-b94f-fa111d84fcaa_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NPbD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f98db0d-c50f-4b1f-b94f-fa111d84fcaa_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NPbD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f98db0d-c50f-4b1f-b94f-fa111d84fcaa_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NPbD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f98db0d-c50f-4b1f-b94f-fa111d84fcaa_1080x719.png" width="1080" height="719" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3f98db0d-c50f-4b1f-b94f-fa111d84fcaa_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:719,&quot;width&quot;:1080,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:560792,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.net/i/193064960?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f98db0d-c50f-4b1f-b94f-fa111d84fcaa_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NPbD!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f98db0d-c50f-4b1f-b94f-fa111d84fcaa_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NPbD!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f98db0d-c50f-4b1f-b94f-fa111d84fcaa_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NPbD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f98db0d-c50f-4b1f-b94f-fa111d84fcaa_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NPbD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3f98db0d-c50f-4b1f-b94f-fa111d84fcaa_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>Look at the map. Vietnam sits right next to China.<br>When that moment comes, Russia will use Vietnam as a strategic lever.</p><p>This is the real reason behind Russia&#8217;s continued supply of weapons and nuclear energy cooperation with Vietnam.</p><p>When a Russia&#8211;China conflict unfolds, Moscow will not need to persuade Hanoi.<br>It will simply activate what has already been put in place.</p><p>Vietnam will become a position from which pressure can be applied against China.<br>Perhaps even the starting point of a conflict few are willing to imagine.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Why Vietnam Can’t Fully Trust Russia?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Vietnam can&#8217;t fully trust Russia.]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-vietnam-cant-fully-trust-russia</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-vietnam-cant-fully-trust-russia</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 12:53:26 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lidL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48213cd6-f271-4c21-8958-d720d4f04e11_1080x719.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;5bb7e58d-a499-4426-8e65-7b985014bcd7&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>Vietnam can&#8217;t fully trust Russia. It may sound wrong&#8230; but look at 1979.</p><p>China has influence through trade, supply chains, and geography.<br>Its interests are tightly tied to Vietnam&#8217;s stability.</p><p>But Russia controls something else: weapons.<br>Most of Vietnam&#8217;s military equipment comes from Russia, creating a dependency that is extremely difficult to replace.<br>If Russia were to change its position, Vietnam&#8217;s ability to fight could be seriously weakened.</p><p>In 1978, Vietnam signed a treaty allowing the Soviet Union to station forces at Cam Ranh Bay.<br>But in 1979, when the China-Vietnam War broke out, despite being an ally, the Soviet Union did not send troops to defend Vietnam.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lidL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48213cd6-f271-4c21-8958-d720d4f04e11_1080x719.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lidL!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48213cd6-f271-4c21-8958-d720d4f04e11_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lidL!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48213cd6-f271-4c21-8958-d720d4f04e11_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lidL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48213cd6-f271-4c21-8958-d720d4f04e11_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lidL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48213cd6-f271-4c21-8958-d720d4f04e11_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lidL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48213cd6-f271-4c21-8958-d720d4f04e11_1080x719.png" width="1080" height="719" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/48213cd6-f271-4c21-8958-d720d4f04e11_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:719,&quot;width&quot;:1080,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:687539,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.net/i/192200160?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48213cd6-f271-4c21-8958-d720d4f04e11_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lidL!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48213cd6-f271-4c21-8958-d720d4f04e11_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lidL!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48213cd6-f271-4c21-8958-d720d4f04e11_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lidL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48213cd6-f271-4c21-8958-d720d4f04e11_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lidL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48213cd6-f271-4c21-8958-d720d4f04e11_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>China may apply pressure, but it cannot walk away from Vietnam, because its interests are deeply tied to this region.<br>Russia, on the other hand, is far away. It does not need Vietnam to develop.<br>It only needs Vietnam to remain within its system.</p><p>Is Russia truly a reliable partner or is it simply keeping Vietnam in a long-term dependency?</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Control Threat! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Fear Small Countries Won’t Say?]]></title><description><![CDATA[The fear small countries never talk about.]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/the-fear-small-countries-wont-say</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/the-fear-small-countries-wont-say</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 24 Mar 2026 12:51:51 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eOek!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff091686e-8a9d-4164-9cc0-a9844496ab70_1080x719.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;ddd29ac9-2f5a-4d44-9159-ddb799c2bf4a&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>The fear small countries never talk about. The most frightening thing is not war. It is facing war alone. Small countries often rely on powerful nations to guarantee their security. But alliances only last as long as interests align.</p><p>In 1938, Britain and France did not defend Czechoslovakia against Nazi Germany.<br>In 1975, the United States withdrew from Vietnam.<br>In 2021, the U.S. left Afghanistan.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eOek!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff091686e-8a9d-4164-9cc0-a9844496ab70_1080x719.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eOek!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff091686e-8a9d-4164-9cc0-a9844496ab70_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eOek!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff091686e-8a9d-4164-9cc0-a9844496ab70_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eOek!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff091686e-8a9d-4164-9cc0-a9844496ab70_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eOek!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff091686e-8a9d-4164-9cc0-a9844496ab70_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eOek!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff091686e-8a9d-4164-9cc0-a9844496ab70_1080x719.png" width="1080" height="719" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f091686e-8a9d-4164-9cc0-a9844496ab70_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:719,&quot;width&quot;:1080,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1073833,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.net/i/191976515?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff091686e-8a9d-4164-9cc0-a9844496ab70_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eOek!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff091686e-8a9d-4164-9cc0-a9844496ab70_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eOek!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff091686e-8a9d-4164-9cc0-a9844496ab70_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eOek!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff091686e-8a9d-4164-9cc0-a9844496ab70_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eOek!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff091686e-8a9d-4164-9cc0-a9844496ab70_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Each time, the same lesson returned. When the cost of war becomes too high, even the strongest allies may walk away. That is why small countries constantly try to become more strategically important. Because the greatest fear in international politics is not war. It is being left alone when the war begins.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Control Threat! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Why Superpowers Never Fight?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Why do superpowers constantly prepare for war, yet rarely fight each other directly?]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-superpowers-never-fight</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-superpowers-never-fight</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 21 Mar 2026 14:00:49 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iHVk!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700e028e-1f52-4bc0-9504-08d9797e7a96_1080x719.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;2ae335df-479d-4b69-b9a5-d34f68ae56c7&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>Why do superpowers constantly prepare for war, yet rarely fight each other directly?</p><p>Whenever superpowers confront each other head-on, the consequences are devastating: two world wars in the past, and today the risk of nuclear destruction.</p><p>Now there is another constraint.<br>Superpowers are deeply tied together through global supply chains, and a direct war could collapse the entire world economy.</p><p>So instead of confronting each other directly, they compete through proxy wars.</p><p>Conflicts where they stand behind the scenes, supplying weapons, money, and political backing.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iHVk!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700e028e-1f52-4bc0-9504-08d9797e7a96_1080x719.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iHVk!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700e028e-1f52-4bc0-9504-08d9797e7a96_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iHVk!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700e028e-1f52-4bc0-9504-08d9797e7a96_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iHVk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700e028e-1f52-4bc0-9504-08d9797e7a96_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iHVk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700e028e-1f52-4bc0-9504-08d9797e7a96_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iHVk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700e028e-1f52-4bc0-9504-08d9797e7a96_1080x719.png" width="1080" height="719" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/700e028e-1f52-4bc0-9504-08d9797e7a96_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:719,&quot;width&quot;:1080,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1011790,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.net/i/191672451?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700e028e-1f52-4bc0-9504-08d9797e7a96_1080x719.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iHVk!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700e028e-1f52-4bc0-9504-08d9797e7a96_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iHVk!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700e028e-1f52-4bc0-9504-08d9797e7a96_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iHVk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700e028e-1f52-4bc0-9504-08d9797e7a96_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iHVk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700e028e-1f52-4bc0-9504-08d9797e7a96_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>Superpowers do not avoid war because they love peace.</p><p>They avoid it because a war between them could destroy themselves.</p><p>And that is why the greatest rivalries between superpowers are often fought on smaller battlefields.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Control Threat! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Why Countries Choose War?]]></title><description><![CDATA[If war is the worst outcome in international politics, why do countries still decide to start one?]]></description><link>https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-countries-choose-war</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.controlthreat.org/p/why-countries-choose-war</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Control Threat]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2026 12:42:07 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5f0B!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F027b1c76-be03-4e85-ba3a-4b88338bd80e_1080x719.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;f2a84d6c-851a-434c-baf9-584ed99616a1&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>If war is the worst outcome in international politics, why do countries still decide to start one?</p><p>In 2022, Russia launched a military campaign in Ukraine.<br>From the outside, the decision looked extremely risky.</p><p>But from Moscow&#8217;s perspective, the real issue was time.</p><p>Ukraine was moving increasingly closer to the West.<br>NATO weapons were beginning to appear.<br>Ukraine&#8217;s military was becoming better trained and better equipped.</p><p>If Russia waited another ten years, the balance of power could change completely. Ukraine might even become a direct threat to Russia.</p><p>In Russia&#8217;s strategic thinking, the window of opportunity was closing.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5f0B!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F027b1c76-be03-4e85-ba3a-4b88338bd80e_1080x719.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5f0B!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F027b1c76-be03-4e85-ba3a-4b88338bd80e_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5f0B!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F027b1c76-be03-4e85-ba3a-4b88338bd80e_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5f0B!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F027b1c76-be03-4e85-ba3a-4b88338bd80e_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5f0B!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F027b1c76-be03-4e85-ba3a-4b88338bd80e_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5f0B!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F027b1c76-be03-4e85-ba3a-4b88338bd80e_1080x719.png" width="1080" height="719" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5f0B!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F027b1c76-be03-4e85-ba3a-4b88338bd80e_1080x719.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5f0B!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F027b1c76-be03-4e85-ba3a-4b88338bd80e_1080x719.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5f0B!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F027b1c76-be03-4e85-ba3a-4b88338bd80e_1080x719.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5f0B!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F027b1c76-be03-4e85-ba3a-4b88338bd80e_1080x719.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>And when a country believes that waiting will only make it weaker, war can begin to look rational.</p><p>Wars rarely start because someone truly wants them.</p><p>They begin when one side believes that doing nothing is more dangerous than taking action.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.controlthreat.org/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Control Threat! 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